Unknown:
0:00
Music.
Blythe Brumleve:
0:05
Let's go ahead and get started on icebreaker ships, because this is a very it's one of those things that you hear in shipping, and I don't know that I have the had the full grasp on it, on why people even want to establish this shipping lane? Did you? Did you know about this? I guess shipping lane or shipping story, before you know, we were doing research for this.
Grace Sharkey:
0:34
I guess, no, not in particular. I mean, I know of icebreakers clearly, just like being where I'm from and have seen them before, but no, not in particular. No, well,
Blythe Brumleve:
0:46
I think for the first I want to play this. I want to start off this section with why this sea route is important. Because essentially what we have throughout the world is that we have these shipping lanes, these big trade lanes, which are safe passages, or somewhat safe passages that giant cargo ships, oil tankers, fishing vessels, that they can travel through and end up at their destination in the quickest, most efficient time period. And with this new route that is opening up, largely in part because of the ice melting in the Arctic region. So that's the North Pole. We're not talking about Antarctica, which is the south pole. So the North Pole is where a lot of this ice is melting, and it's starting to open up faster and more efficient shipping lanes. But that brings a whole lot of sort of discussion, geopolitical natural resources. It brings up a whole lot of discussions, but first, before we get into some of our favorite takeaways about learning about this topic, I want to play this video that will kind of give like a good, I think, overall arcing, overarching view of what this is and why it's important. So let's play the clip.
Unknown:
1:57
This is the Northwest Passage. It's a sea passage that spans 900 miles and joins the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through the Arctic archipelago. It may look insignificant, but the truth is, this passage has the potential to change everything. The only problem is that it doesn't exist yet. Well, sword, you see, we've known about this passage for centuries, but it's always too COVID in sea ice to be used for regular marine shipping during most of the year. But now this is all potentially changing. Since 1979 the Arctic sea ice has declined by 40% with NASA saying it's currently disappearing at a rate of 13% per decade. Put simply, the Arctic sea ice is melting and also being replaced with thinner seasonal ice due to climate change, and this means that eventually, whether it be by 2050, 2100, or somewhere in between, the Northwest Passage will become fully navigable for mega container ships for at least a few months out of the year. The importance and geopolitical ramifications of this cannot be understated. In fact, the reason we've known of this passage for centuries is because of how transformative it would be. Even back then, European explorers, beginning with Christopher Columbus in 1492 searched for a direct trade route from Western Europe to East Asia, but they never found one. It took until 1850 for the first icy northern passage to be discovered, or while technically invented, and until 1906 when it was finally traversed by the legendary role Amundsen. Since that first crossing, there have been at least 320 transits up until 2021 with 38 of them being from 2019 to 2021 showing it's still a pretty challenging passage to traverse. So I'm
Blythe Brumleve:
3:35
going to stop it right there, because that's a really good point to I guess, Intro This discussion of what exactly like icebreaker ships are. Now you kind of have a general overview of what's happening in that region and why these ships are starting to be needed. Basically, with icebreakers, there's two types of icebreakers where one has a bow that sticks out much further than, I guess, sort of the top of a traditional ship, of what you can see, it has an underneath that, sort of, you know, can bust through the ice, up to six feet of ice that it can bust through before the actual, I guess, sort of real part of the bow that you see on a traditional ship makes it has to, you know, sort of slosh through it. So there's that method of it. And then there's another method of icebreaker ship that they almost try to go as fast as possible, so they can get up on the ice and then come down and crack it that way. And so there's a bunch of different like videos where they can see, like, especially in this region of cargo ships and or mostly like oil and gas ships that are being caught in this ice up north in the Arctic, and these icebreaker ships have to go through and do one of those two methods in order to carve out a path for those ships to make it through. So I'll stop right there, since we you know, I had the video and explained it a little more. But what, I guess, what are your first thoughts when you know about that, when you learn about this history, when you in the region that you're in, what are sort of your, I guess, favorite takeaways about icebreaker ships?
Grace Sharkey:
5:13
Well, in general, I think it's interesting for just trade domestically, in the US, how much of it is dependent on this as well, let alone what we'll see in the future. I think the stat I pulled for this lane in particular was by 2050 I believe this will be the primary point of transit between Europe and Asia. So clearly, a huge impact it's going to have on on global trade, let alone what we see just domestically as well. I want to, I'm trying to look at the stat right now. I think it was around, yeah, just in Great Lakes, ice breaking alone, supports over 90 million tons of cargo annualized. So imagine what that number is going to look like, especially once it becomes such a mean trade line. And I mean, here it's, it's interesting kind of, I wish I would have pulled some sonar charts from this, and might be able to send you some later. But Well, theoretically, we don't really have much right for this lane, but it's, you know, one of my favorite things, favorite sonar charts we do at freight waves, is the panel canal index. That's not exactly what it's called, what's kind of what we call internally, and it helps you kind of see right the rates between going to LA ports compared to going to someone like Houston based on the availability of going through the Panama Canal at that time, right? So it gives you, like, this flux of a different option, that that's why we see so much investment in Dallas and Houston, etc, because of that path, because at the Panther canal, of course, was widened, which led for more of that option. So I get really excited, just from like, a data standpoint, to see, like, how that would affect overall, like what we see on trade lanes right now, even through the United States and and so on. So, yeah, I get, I think it's really cool to, like, consider and think, right, like, just because of these icebreakers, the the global ramifications of it, I think I wonder if you're going to get to it. But, I mean, we have a whole pack, right, based on this lane. It's called the ice pack, and it's between, I believe, the US, Russia.
Blythe Brumleve:
7:31
It's I believe.
Grace Sharkey:
7:33
No, sorry, United States, Canada and Finland. And so they, yeah, the between the three of us, there's the US Coast Guard has two main icebreakers that they're starting to use as of July of this year to start cutting that ice that you just went over, right?
Blythe Brumleve:
7:52
Well, so it's a little complicated in that regard, because we've only had two of Yes, icebreaker ships, and they're decades old. So meanwhile, like Russia, has more than 50 and a few of them are nuclear. One of them and the Arctica, I believe, is the name of the ship, and it's nuclear powered. So yeah, it doesn't have to go back to port. And yeah, we can just patrol. It can traverse. And so what's happening with a lot of this polar or Arctic ice melt is that it's exposing more, you know, shoreline and more land, especially like Canada, for example. And So Russia has essentially, you know, claimed a lot of this, the these passage ways, and this, these routes, and are like, No, you have to pay a fee. And Canada's like, No, you are there. Because
Grace Sharkey:
8:39
this is like, go talk to NATO. Yeah.
Blythe Brumleve:
8:43
Like, we're going to friends and, yeah, this and, but,
Grace Sharkey:
8:47
you know, a big, a big issue that we do have outside of this lane in particular, is there's not many United States owned cargo carriers right as as part of this. So it's, it's interesting, like, Could this be a lane that finally gives the United States an option to to gain some traction on that fact right to to have more carriers under the United States sale? And I think that also could be interesting, right? The political ramifications are something that clearly is going to have to be discussed at some point. But it's, it's almost like, if you've played not war, what's the game if you haven't played it so long, we're different countries now, all of a sudden, there's just a different path for you to take. How much that could change, like, trade relationships, right? Like, maybe talk about Russia. I mean, maybe that is a relationship we grow even more so just knowing that the economic ramifications of of ignoring that relationship, right? So, I mean, it's, it's this, it sounds like we'll probably air after the election, but like, ooh, like, it's crazy to think like that could be an election topic, right? Like, yeah, a couple periods.
Blythe Brumleve:
10:01
Are you in freight sales with a book of business, looking for a new home, or perhaps you're a freight agent in need of a better partnership? These are the kinds of conversations we're exploring in our podcast interview series called The freight agent trenches, sponsored by SPI logistics. Now I can tell you all day that SPI is one of the most successful logistics firms in North America who helps their agents with back office operations such as admin, finance it and sales, but I would much rather you hear it directly from SBI freight agents themselves. And what better way to do that than by listening to the experienced freight agents tell their stories behind the how and the why they joined SPI hit the freight agent link in our show notes to listen to these conversations. Or if you're ready to make the jump, visit SPI three. Pl.com, well, it's it's to your your earlier point about the Panama Canal and for cargo companies, or for cargo ship companies carriers the route from San Francisco to Rotterdam, Netherlands via the Arctic route would take about 7000 nautical miles, while San Fran to Rotterdam via the Panama Canal is about 9000 miles. That's about a 40% difference in nautical miles by taking the Arctic route versus taking the Panama Canal canal route, and you can have more weight if you take the Arctic route, because you're limited. When you go through the Panama Canal, you have to have certain weight restrictions. Yeah. And then there's also this initiative, because I'm sure most people have heard about the, you know, the China Belt and Road Initiative. They have another initiative called the polar Silk Road. And so, if you know your history, you know that Silk Road was this, you know, major, you know, I guess, trade road from the East Asian countries over to over to Europe. And, you know, Western Asian, Asian countries that are, you know, partaking in trade. It was one of the first, I guess human civilization. I guess not tactics. Maybe tactics is the right word for here, but it was mostly human trade was set up in a variety of ways. Human trade and commodity trading was set up through this Silk Road. And so they're calling this the polar Silk Road. And so it's because of no restrictions. You can get there faster. So it brings up a lot of, I guess, sort of environmental debate too, like, because of global warming, because of, you know, everything that's going on in the Arctic with this ice melting, you almost have to ask yourself too, like, are we even going to need ice breakers in the next couple decades, because you have Russia that has more than 50 of these icebreakers. You have China that's building out a ton of icebreakers, and they're doing it to, you know, take advantage of this new trade route that is starting to open up. And they believe that they will, that it's estimated by like 2035 that we're going to have just a huge section of this Northwest Passage route that's going to be completely open for anyone to use. And so now, from a geopolitical standpoint, you have Canada that's like, No, we're going to start charging fees, sort of like Panama or Egypt. You know, they're charging fees to go through the Suez Canal, to go through the Panama Canal. Canada wants to do the same thing, because there's not that much economic activity going on up there, which is another sort of, I guess, negative aspect of this polar trade route is that there aren't many ports, and that a lot of for the Inuit people that have been there for they're called, like, the first, Canada's First Peoples, and there's so many like livelihoods that are set up in these northern like regions, and their way of life is melting away before their eyes. And so it brings up like these conversations of, okay, if you're going to establish these trade routes, and you're going to maybe start building ports along these trade routes, because right now, there are hardly any courts along this trade route like you should be involving these people who are already having their lives impacted. And then also think about it from the lens of if one of like an oil taker goes down in the Arctic like that is devastating to these communities, because you can't even clean up the oil because it's the ice makes it incredibly difficult to be able to use sort of modern we had a spill in the Gulf. What like horizon, Deepwater Horizon, or something like that, I think. But they can use these large sort of nets in the ocean to scoop up all of that oil. You can't do that in the Arctic, because there's, you've got freaking floating ice going on up there. So it has, like, all of these different ramifications. And I just thought that was
Grace Sharkey:
14:51
heading to that point, like, I'm thinking about, like, again, funny or near election season, but the migration that. Need to, like, happen up there to to back a port, you know, like, do I know right now there's a number of really great like, flatbed trucking jobs in Canada and towards the Arctic, and in Alaska as well, just because it's, you know, they're growing communities and things need to get up there, and it's a tough drive, right? But now it's like, when you sit here and you talk about, like, putting ports in some of these areas too, it's like, they don't have, I mean, I don't know if you've ever seen like, the most northern town, but it's like, everyone there works for the oil company, and there's, there's kind of a grocery store, you know it's like, and so think about the job creation needed to, like, support a a true port, community supplies. Like, yeah, there was even just to live, like, putting a grocery store in there. Now you're talking about construction jobs and, like, the just development of that type of infrastructure is, like, just really interesting to kind of consider, right of like, all the moves I would have to make to make sure that this investment, you could say now is really pays off. Well,
Blythe Brumleve:
16:13
there, there was another video. It was like a CNBC video that was talking about Arctic shipping, and it was published about a year ago, and there was a gentleman that was on there talking about, he was like a captain. He was talking about, you know, the, I guess, the intricacies of sailing through some of these different issues. But he mentioned that during the time of that recording, that only 300 ships have made it through the Arctic since, wow, it was that the passage has been discovered 300 ships. And so it's so new, it's so fresh, and it's so really, like actively developing or erasing, or kind of, maybe, yeah, with like, going on at the same time. And it's just, I, it's very interesting to sort of watch that geopolitical strategic chess pieces being made, because that's it's something that for a lot of our borders and a lot of our, I guess, countries, and the way things have been, you know, this is a new area, much like how we've talked about, you know, sort of the the colonization that's going on with the moon. We talked about that in one of our space episodes, yeah. And that is now it. You could start to see the chess pieces being made by China, by Russia, and then some of the other NATO countries, and, you know, like Finland, Norway, Denmark, all of these huge ports. And what's crazy is that you watch a lot of this stuff, and you forget how close these countries are to each other. I think we're so used to seeing the regular map where it's like the US is on the left, and, you know, Russia and China is on the right, and it looks so far away. But you know, sorry to the Flat Earthers out there, but with the circulation, you can look at the Arctic and just see how close Canada, Russia, like China, considers them an Arctic country, like they mentioned that in one of their I'm sure they did it for, you know, economic and political reasons, but they are, they want to be mentioned among some of these Arctic countries, which is also super interesting because their Belt and Road Initiative, which, for folks who may not know, that's China's initiative to sort of have soft power throughout the rest of the globe by building ports and roads and just like logistics infrastructure in all of these different countries. And they'll do it, and they'll pay for it, but if you don't pay them back in, you know, a set amount of time for these loans, then they get to seize those ports. They seize the that infrastructure, which is happening in some African countries, it's probably going to happen in some South American countries. So it's a very it's an interesting thing to watch play out that will likely be decided in our lifetime, that the art this Arctic ice will largely not exist in the next 30 years. It's going to be a lot of it's going to be melted away and for the majority of the year. Because right now, it's only a few months out of the year that these icebreakers are largely being used for these routes, but it starts melting away and you have less need for icebreakers. And you know, I guess maybe the US is playing the log game. And in regards to shipbuilding, much to a grin or chagrin of you know, friend of the show, John Conrad of G captain, if you follow him on X, he's always talking about shipbuilding. And China is pretty much kicking our ass in that regard, of of shipbuilding, and a good portion of their ship building is for icebreakers. So maybe that's a good thing for the US. In the end, there's also a tourism that's kind of taken off for that region too. You have icebreakers, I think, from Norway, that will go into the ice. You can pay, you know, 1000s of dollars and go on. Ship, and then you can get off the ship and go just walk around on, like, the different ice sheets. And I watched this video of this family. They, this guy, put on a suit that's, like, meant to help you if you fall into, like, prevent, you know, hypothermia, yeah. And he can they let people wear these suits and jump into the Arctic if you want to. And I thought that was pretty cool, too. So there's some tourism aspect that's going on there as well, but I just that the idea that it's called, like, the polar Silk Road, I think, is crazy and crazy fascinating. I guess not like, crazy and like, ah, like, you know, I pull my hair out kind of way. But like you said
Grace Sharkey:
20:41
in our lifetime, that stat said by 2050 I mean, that's not incredibly far away. Like that could be a main, the main line between, you know, us and and Europe. That's crazy. Consider so again, and just like, I mean, I'd love to, like, have Lauren on the show too, be the maritime professor, Lauren vegan. And like, the alliances have already changed with carriers. Just like, how would that change carrier alliances, and how would that shape, because global pricing and add the security level to it all too. It gets like super interesting. Brokering success
Blythe Brumleve:
21:24
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Grace Sharkey:
22:43
It's close.
Blythe Brumleve:
22:44
But you can see on this map all of the different trade lanes that have been established, the trade routes, and then all of the yellow dots are ports that are currently already existing in this area. And so as this ice melts, more and more, you're going to see more ports pop up, especially on the Russian side of things, because this was a major initiative, a major focus of the country, from what I understand, before the Ukraine invasion. And so since then, their supplies and their budgets and their focus have been on that, less on this. And so this, is arguably, I guess, depending on which way the war goes in the future, this is going to be a focus again for Russia. Another graphic that I wanted to bring up too is the economic exclusive economic zone. And so this is an area of that same map I just showed you, of which the US has rights to from an economic perspective. And so that's more along the lines of just, I guess, they can drill for, like natural resources, natural gas, oil, things like that. And so that is, yeah, that's another concern, I guess, is the the economic zone, and who controls these different areas and who doesn't? And it sort of brings up the earlier point of, like, Canada, like some of this shoreline or is starting to even emerge for them, and so that's a territory that they have to claim. And you know, very like, it's with Antarctica at the South Pole, all of the world's nations kind of have a pact. Have an agreement. They have their own little sections of Antarctica, where the Arctic, it's still very much like up in it's it's up for debate, I guess. And where those where those borders are, and where it's being contested, and some countries recognize certain borders, and then other countries don't recognize those borders. And so it's just, I think it's just a really fascinating topic that I'm glad we got to cover in this show. I do wonder, though, is there any difference between. At some of these Arctic I guess, icebreakers in, I guess strategy versus the Great Lakes area. Like, is it largely the same? Is it maybe just the Great Lakes shippers kind of all stay within the Great Lakes. Or what is, do you know, any of, I guess, that routing that goes on up there? Like, are these Chinese companies coming in, or
Grace Sharkey:
25:24
it doesn't, I don't think so. I know most of them are ran by the US Coast Guard. There's I want to see. I was just looking at the number of them here in the United States. Most of them are used, though, of all the ships, icebreakers that the United States own, most of them, which I had that number? Where did it come?
Blythe Brumleve:
25:46
We only had two. Maybe it's just two Arctic. We
Grace Sharkey:
25:49
have two that, that was, that was the point I was gonna make. We only have two that we have 12 total, only two are functional for the Arctic, where as Russia has 41 in particular. Finland, it looks like 11. Canada has 20. Again, not all of those are for the Arctic, though it sounds like some of that's for, I think the Hudson Bay up there, and but they are. They're building more out of Canada. And then China has just five. But again, they're so close to Russia to say that they would never work together on that it's, it's silly. So they're, they're building, it looks, it sounds like two more here in the United States or no, sorry, they're building more. The numbers, not on here right now, of how many they're looking to build. But yeah, the ones that are in are in the Great Lakes. Are just like nowhere near the the type of icebreaker that you would need for that type of ice in particular. But
Blythe Brumleve:
26:53
it has made me wonder with that they
Grace Sharkey:
26:56
aren't like they are. I will say they are Coast Guard run. So there's no like entity, that
Blythe Brumleve:
27:02
commercial operation, yes, yeah. Well, they're typically
Grace Sharkey:
27:06
a navy ran, I guess, if you looked at it that way, I because
Blythe Brumleve:
27:10
the reason I asked about that is because my brain goes to, well, China's kind of doing the same thing with Mexico right now, where they're just sending a lot of freight into Mexico and then just trucking it in. Like, would they do the same thing with Canada, and then just truck it in on the other side? So I was just curious about that, which I'm sure would especially that was rail lines.
Grace Sharkey:
27:31
I think the big problem there would be, yes, you have rail lines, but they're like, how covered in snow? Are they at different there are certain times of the year. I think the infrastructure is nowhere near that of Mexico. So, but like, again, it depends on if you, I'm sure if you built a port somewhere between, like Alaska and so, like, a Canadian port, right? Like that could be an option depending on the times of the year. But I know, again, I stroke trucking. It's really dangerous up there. So I would a lot of times there's just there. Those guys are just driving that ice, right? So again, I would just, if anything, though, I don't think you're wrong. I think again, it goes back to my statement on, like, this lane, like, think of the trickling effect of the economy it could do. I mean, there would need to be more truckers up there. They would need to be more towns and settle settlements, right for for those people that are helping move any of those goods. So again, I don't think out of the question, especially because if we're losing that much ice, I would assume at some point we're going to see less snow in some of those areas too. So a lot of, a lot of what ifs right?
Blythe Brumleve:
28:46
And there's, as I was watching a lot of these videos too, just breaking down, like, what icebreakers are, what why this Northwest Passage is, is so important, and why it could change things from a geopolitical perspective. And a lot of the videos were showing like these, you know, chips that are coming from China and leaving the East Coast, and they're going all the way up to the Northwest Passage, or they're going all the way through, like, the Panama Canal. I'm like, why don't they just go to LA like, why are you going all the way around? And apparently it's the, from what I understand, the Malacca Strait is where a lot of the Chinese ports are located, and if the ships come out of the those areas, that's where there's a lot of geopolitical tension, because of Taiwan, because of Japan, like the Philippines, and that's a lot of contested waters there. And so that's why these other routes where China either goes north or they go through the Panama Canal, that's why it makes much more sense for them to avoid the drama in the Malacca Strait, or the potential of drama and the Malacca Strait, and take these routes to the US instead. So it also has some US implications to like, you know, is the Port of LA is Long Beach? Are those going to, you know, be impacted by the Northwest Passage as well? And so. A lot of these questions we can't answer today, but fascinating discussion regardless.
Grace Sharkey:
30:05
You know, I do want to throw out some numbers on here, though, because it is, like, kind of crazy. Like, what this would cost when we talk about, like, where is this money going to come from, too? Um, so it looks like the Coast Guard has they call PSC program right now, a polar security cutter program that would aims to acquire four or five new heavy polar icebreakers and an acquisition of a new Arctic security cutter. So a medium polar icebreaker, is that?
Blythe Brumleve:
30:38
What you're saying a cutter like they get through the ice, I guess,
Grace Sharkey:
30:41
yep, so, like icebreaker that's basically like a heavy duty one and a medium sized one, or a medium effort, I would assume, I mean, and it looks like estimated cost for the big One is I gotta move things over $1.2 billion for the first ship, 921 million for the second ship, and $1.1 billion for the third ship. So again, it's just, it's just so crazy, right? Another, another thing we're going to have to figure out taxpayer wise, right? But it's just the money behind it. It's crazy. There's, like, a whole report. I'm sure you probably have some of the data from that too.
Blythe Brumleve:
31:32
There's so many, like, just, it's untouched land too. So it's the minerals, the natural resources, sure, like lithium deposits and things like that that, you know, wars are being fought all over the world for, and so it's just an unfortunate reality that that's going to be something that they fight over next. And how are they going to pay for it? Well, probably through some of those natural resources, I would imagine, or securities budgets. I'm sure they can justify a lot of things for securing that
Grace Sharkey:
32:02
oil there's there's oil somewhere, you know, oil pay for it.
Blythe Brumleve:
32:11
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